National poll predicts two-point popular vote win for Obama and electoral college LANDSLIDE over Mitt Romney
0 shares 9 View comments Mitt Romney has pulled ahead of President Barack Obama in one of the key daily tracking polls as the rival candidates head into a last day of furious campaigning around the country.The latest Rasmussen daily tracking poll put Romney with a one-point lead by 49% to 48%. Yesterday they were both tied according to the same survey.
Rasmussen also gave Romney a two-point lead in Virginia, along with Florida and Ohio - one of the three big battleground states that he almost certainly has to win. Winner? The Rasmussen survey had Romney pulling away from Obama Swing states: Rasmussen gives Romney a two-point lead in Virginia, along with Florida and Ohio - one of the three big battleground states that he almost certainly has to win Taking the lead: The Rasmussen daily tracker shows how Romney has pulled slightly away from Obama
Rasmussen also gave Romney a two-point lead in Virginia, along with Florida and Ohio - one of the three big battleground states that he almost certainly has to win. Winner? The Rasmussen survey had Romney pulling away from Obama Swing states: Rasmussen gives Romney a two-point lead in Virginia, along with Florida and Ohio - one of the three big battleground states that he almost certainly has to win Taking the lead: The Rasmussen daily tracker shows how Romney has pulled slightly away from ObamaThe rivals will today make a dash across several undecided states to shore up any more voters as possible at the last minute. Obama is campaigning today in Wisconsin, Ohio and Iowa while Romney is in Florida, Virginia, Ohio and New Hampshire.
Meanwhile, a national poll of more than 36,000 voters in 27 states forecasts that President Barack Obama will win re-election by two percentage points.
More... How Romney can still win the election: Mitt needs to master the electoral map in order to stem Obama's growing lead Oops! Joe Biden forgets Barack Obama's name as he continues his run of campaign gaffes with just one day until election Tender moment between Mitt and Ann captured as team Romney races across the country to shore up last minute voters (and the supporters just keep getting younger) With friends like these, will it be Signed, Sealed, Delivered? Obama relies on his showbiz pals to help push him over the edge In what it bills as ‘one of the most extensive polls ever conducted’, British-based YouGov conducted its survey via the internet between October 31st and November 3rd. It found that in among the popular vote, Obama would win by 48.5% to Romney's 46.5%.The survey included all the battleground states along with the largest states such as New York, California and Texas. The figures from YouGov are more optimistic for Obama, but are generally in line with other polls conducted over the weekend. Sneak peek: A young supporter of Romney peers under an barrier during the rally at Avion Jet Center Sanford, Florida Jetset: Romney will visit four states today on his last full day of campaigning Shape of the map: How YouGov see the states being divided on election nightABC/Washington Post, George Washington University/Politico, and Fox News polls all found the race as tied. NBC/Wall Street Journal gave Obama a one-point advantage.YouGov projects that Obama will win 18 states comfortably, giving him a base of 237 electoral college votes, 33 short of his target. Romney is projected to win 24 base states, giving him 191 electoral college votes, 79 short of victory. There are 110 electoral college votes up for grabs in the remaining nine states, with Obama needing to win just under a third of them and Romney needing almost three-quarters of them. But Peter Kellner, president of YouGov, hedged his bets by saying, according to YouGov, that ‘while the President looks set for re-election, a Romney victory cannot be ruled out’. Such an outcome, however, ‘would need YouGov's figures - and those of almost all other pollsters - to be systematically wrong’. Doubt: The surprisingly optimistic figures for Obama from YouGov run counter to other polls over the weekend which show a much tighter race Future: romney held up a baby as the rally in Sanford, Florida, today YouGov identified the following as sources of possible error: a late swing towards Romney; different turnout to what the pollsters predicted; inaccurate methodology; or response rates that over-represent Obama’s support. Kelner said: ‘We are predicting that Obama is going to hang on to the presidency, but by a smaller margin than in 2008. It’s even possible that Obama will narrowly lose the nationwide popular vote and still win the electoral college. ‘Mitt Romney could win one million more votes than Obama across American and still lose the election. There have been elections when the winner of the popular vote has lost the Electoral College, most recently in 2000 when Al Gore won the popular vote, but still lost the election to George W Bush. Edge: Obama maintains a polling edge in all-important Ohio with a 2.8 per cent lead in the RealClearPolitics average. Obama is pictured greeting supporters as he arrives at a campaign rally in Cincinnati, Ohio, on Sunday ‘In such a tight race, no doubt the Democrats are not only concerned about losing the White House, but are also worried about the cloud that could hang over Obama’s second term if he does not win the popular vote. Whatever happens tomorrow, this will undeniably be an historic election.’Obama maintains a polling edge in all-important Ohio with a 2.8 per cent lead in the RealClearPolitics average. Romney leads by 1.4 per cent and 0.3 per cent in Florida and Virginia respectively – two swing states he must win if he is to oust Obama.But the Romney campaign remains strikingly confident that a surge in Republican turnout and a swing among late-deciding voters will put them over the top. Hopes: Obama speaks at a rally at McArthur High School in Hollywood, Florida, on Sunday Rich Beeson, Romney’s political director, told Fox News on Sunday: ‘There’s an intensity factor out there on the side of the Republicans, that is a significant gap and we see it out on the ground.‘We see it when people are knocking on the doors, we see it when people are making the phone calls and again, it gets back to the simple fact that Governor Romney is out there talking about big things and big change, not about small things.’There were ‘two numbers to keep in mind’ he said. ‘One is independents. Independents are going decide this race in all of these states. Governor Romney consistently leads among independents because they have seen his message, for creating 12 million jobs, real recovery and strengthening the middle class. ‘The second number is you’ve got an incumbent president who has been running for this job for the last four years since the day he got elected, will have raised and spent over $1 billion and he is stuck well below 50, at 48, 47, 46, in all of these polls. ‘When you’re an incumbent under 50, and well under 50, that’s a bad place to be.’